This post isn't really finished yet. But I don't know if it ever can be finished. Here's something to start with, at least.
Edit: It has been pointed out that there are alternatives to oil (natural gas, coal) but I don't see those sustaining a population either. We will, no matter what, be living outside our means in terms of energy produced.
I can't entirely explain this dark mood I'm in and I'm going to sound like a paranoid lunatic. But that's okay because maybe I am one deep down. Maybe it's because I've been reading Watchmen... or maybe it's just because I've been thinking about this for a long time. I just can't escape the feeling that our civilization is on the brink of a radical change. I think of Rorschach carrying around his large, picketed sign: The End is Nigh.
It's really easy for us to go through our lives without thinking about anything -- even when it comes to our necessities. We don't have to think about where the food we're eating came from. We don't have to care who made the clothes we're wearing. I don't even have to how this house was built or who did it. All I know is that my parents bought it and I live here by association. Who really cares, right? It all materializes and what else are we supposed to do but snatch it up? It is our nature to acquire.
I'm not saying anything is wrong with our way of life, but let's just take a look at how easily it can all be stripped away. Do you ever get upset when your connection to the internet goes out? I do. I have to go reset things and check connections obsessively until it works again and even then it just behaves erratically. And then I get mad that I even care in the first place. I used to live quite comfortably without it back in the early 90s. I could be writing this garbage in a physical journal right now!
So anyway, if the "net" is the defining mark of our generation, I'm forced to consider other significant advances in the past. The airplane, the automobile, etc. Things that completely changed the way we live our lives. Life was just dandy before all these things, perhaps with the exception of medical technology. Once again, nothing is wrong with this. With human consciousness, we are able to imagine and create anything that changes our world to benefit us.
But how high can you build a house of cards before it falls?
Let's talk about oil. You know, that magic stuff that comes from the ground. I guess some stupid dinosaurs died in a swamp and the Earth was like, "What up guys? I'm gonna like, totally crush you in layers of sediment and reduce you to raw energy because that's what I do!" Once again, I don't really have to give a shit how we got oil. Because even if I make the effort of caring, it doesn't change anyone's attitudes. We all know fuel is a finite energy source. And we all know that buying a hybrid car is not going to prevent the inevitable depletion of this resource. Yet here we are, not making any steps towards independence from oil.
So basically we're all a bunch of kids, procrastinating and putting off our homework until tomorrow. And the next day. And so on.
Oil is everywhere. How we get around to school, work, everywhere. Also consider the other ways it operates the entire country. Oil is invested in all the materials we use. Oil is used to process more oil. Even more critically - oil is used to transport food to us from faraway places. Okay, I really don't have to get into dependency. You all know how prevalent oil is in our lives. Let's just have some fun with this and talk about what's going to happen during the apocalypse.
Military hoarding. So this is the obvious one, right? Oil levels will become low enough that it will be virtually unavailable to civilians. This may not happen instantly. But eventually, oil will be stockpiled for military use because -- let's face it -- our country prides itself on being the biggest stick in the world. So let's make some wild speculation. What will be some of the things to go first? What consumes a ridiculous amount of energy and is completely superfluous? Civilian transport. Especially airports. Sorry guys, but we're stuck here. We don't need to fly or drive anywhere. Just sit tight and wait for more fuel to come.
Oh right... we're fucked. So what do we do while we wait for trucks to bring supplies in? We start to hoard supplies also. But of course the canned goods will only last so long.
Solutions? Unfortunately it is all too easy to ask the questions and not have any answers. I can only hope that people will see how futile it is to grasp at a way of life that is fleeting before our very eyes. When we are faced with such a momentous change, I can only hope we execute it with intelligence and reason. Just because the physical structure fails, our social construct does not have to go with it. Clearly, I still have a lot of faith in humanity. But plenty of doubts as well.
So I really want to hear from people on this one. This is going to be my new conversation starter. Or ender. What would you do when you can't get food at the grocery store? We can't all just migrate to the farm belt without it being completely overrun. We could possibly live off of canned food long enough to start thousands of micro-communities that regress to farming practices. I would be particularly useless; I don't have any skills! But even then we still face the problem that our technology and economy were sustaining a population too large. It seems almost inevitable to have mass starvation to reduce the population to... sustainability. So what is going happen? I don't want to wait anymore. Can't we just get this over with?
Are my assessments unreasonable? Am I jumping to conclusions? Most likely. People typically want to see some studies or statistics but it doesn't really matter in the end. We all know that nothing lasts forever. In fact it's sad to think that I am writing this entry to a medium that could be so easily erased. Seriously, how upset would everyone be if Blogspot suffered a server meltdown? But isn't it our fault for investing in all this, anyway?
5 comments:
Your blog is depressing man. So anyways, I don't think we'll have the supply shock that you're suggesting. What will most likely happen is that supplies will gradually drop lower as demand increases and you'll get the rise in oil prices we've had over time since forever. Eventually oil will cost as much if not more than alternatives and we'll switch over. There's always the possibility that some sort of crisis will happen that will indeed cause the chaos you're talking about and we all know how calm and collected people are during a catastrophe. I just don't think that's as likely a scenario as what I described at the beginning of my comment.
Weird that you'd post about this topic since I was reading this news release yesterday. http://www.darpa.mil/news/2010/VULCANNewsRelease.pdf
Haha I am a buzzkill.
For some reason I just think of Y2K. Remember how scared everyone got about a minor detail? A detail that somehow led to the conclusion that planes would fall from the sky? I guess it's our fault for letting something like that spiral out of control... but wow.
Anyway, thanks for the valid points. There's no reason to dramatize the events to the point that it needs to fit into a 2-hour action blockbuster. But it's kinda fun :D
Hi Paul, interesting thoughts. I have thought about this a lot too and it is easy to be very pessimistic. I just hope that the process of weaning off fossil fuels is gradual enough that technology and hopefully non-scary lifestyle changes will avert catastrophe. This is actually one of the reasons why I became a vegetarian (much easier to feed the world when you don't feed more than half of the crops to animals) and also why I don't drive a car (if I do one day, it'll be the most efficient one I can possibly convince Lianne to buy :-)).
One of my favorite books is on this topic - and is also available free online if you're interested - at http://www.withouthotair.com/ .
I agree that being vegetarian makes an insane amount of sense. If the sun is our primary energy source it makes more sense to eat plants instead of going through secondary and tertiary sources which lose efficiency in each progressive tier. I remember the figures being something like 10% of the energy is absorbed through each level. So if chickens only eat grain and I ate the chicken, I would be getting 1% of that original amount of energy. I'm sure you know all about this.
I think that vegetarianism may be a lifestyle change I could make over time. I've definitely cut back on beef but that's mostly for health benefits. It's virtually impossible to avoid meat while living with my family though. I love meat, but I also used to love drinking soda and I was able to give up that crap.
Of course, global warming is a reason why lifestyle changes now are a good thing, rather than just waiting for the oil price to force it upon us.
Paul, I like that you don't see the vegetarian issue as all-or-nothing. I applaud people that make an effort. Too often people think that you can either change nothing, or you change everything and adopt an "ism", and that can be daunting. In reality, all the shades of gray in between are allowed!
I should also clarify about the car thing. Of course, I benefit from cars, and I ride a motorcycle. I'm not the Gandhi of greenhouse gases. But sustainability and environment do play a role in my decisions, and unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case for a lot of people.
Oh I also didn't want to imply that Lianne would buy me a car. If we need one it will be shared ;-)
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